By AMICHAI STEIN APRIL 27, 2026

As the smoke cleared over Tehran following the start of the Israeli-US strikes, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quick to point the finger. “This all began following Netanyahu’s provocations,” the Turkish leader stated, “we feel deep sorrow and great concern.” He went further, issuing a chilling prophecy: “God willing, I have no doubt that Israel will pay the price for this.”

To the casual observer, Turkey—which is competing with Iran for dominance of the region—should welcome the strike against the Islamic Republic. However, Turkey’s interests in this matter are different from what one might expect.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a leading expert on Turkish affairs at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told The Jerusalem Post that Turkey has a vested interest in the survival of the current Iranian regime. “Ankara does not want to see a new ‘surprise’ in the form of regime change,” Yanarocak noted.