By Nick Paton Walsh, CNN, September 17, 2026

It is a strategy built around a contradiction. Russia’s attacks on Europe aim to make war feel closer, without starting it. To provoke, without forcing a response. To alarm, without causing a real change in behavior.

Moscow has palpably escalated its “grey-zone” conflict with NATO in Europe in the past week. Since late Sunday, a railway on which top former Western officials were traveling has been attacked by a Russian drone, another drone of likely Russian origin has been shot down in Lithuania, a third haswashed up on Polish shores, a Danish helicopter has narrowly been missed by a Russian flare, and Dutch trains have been paralyzed by an as-yet unclaimed act of sabotage.

None of this is by accident. And it comes after weeks of warnings Moscow would seek to escalate with NATO – but perhaps not because it seeks or can afford a full-on conflict with the largest military alliance in history.

Instead, Russian President Vladimir Putin, has two goals, expedited by a Trump administration loathed to upset him having half a term left, and Ukraine’s air defenses being in a woefully undersupplied state.