By OMID HABIBINIA/THE MEDIA LINE APRIL 15, 2026

If a full naval blockade of Iran proves successful, it would, on the one hand, increase the immediate risk of war between Iran and the United States – potentially drawing in all countries in the region – and, on the other, trigger an unprecedented crisis in the global economy, particularly affecting China.

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Forecasts suggest that Iran’s economy, which is heavily dependent on oil exports, could collapse within approximately three months. This would likely be accompanied by massive waves of street protests, driven by subsidy cuts and a sharp, unprecedented surge in runaway inflation.

Following the launch of the naval blockade operation ordered by US President Donald Trump after the failure of negotiations between the two sides in Islamabad, Iran’s ruling authorities have declared that any attack on Iranian ports would be met with retaliatory strikes against ports across the region. 

Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has continued to obstruct passage through the Strait of Hormuz and has reportedly even threatened US military vessels in the area.

At the same time, as the blockade is enforced and President Trump has warned that any Iranian fast-attack boats approaching the area will be destroyed, the IRGC’s warning to US military vessels seeking to enter the Strait of Hormuz could at any moment ignite another war, despite the two-week ceasefire.

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